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Supported by favorable TOT developments and by
macroprudential measures, the improvement in Turkey’s current
balance continued during the first eight months of the year.
This was followed by a period of expansion in the current
account deficit (CAD) as the effects of low energy prices
dissipated but also due to a contraction in tourism revenues. As
of November 2016 the 12-month CAD amounted to USD 33.7
billion. It was financed by foreign direct capital investment and
by long-term borrowing.
The pronounced recovery in core inflation indicators
ended.
Consumer prices were up by 8.53% on a twelve-month basis
in 2016. Although their rise appeared to be gradually slowing
down after July, they shot up significantly in December and
ended the year well above the inflation target’s uncertainty
band. This performance was largely attributable to a weak
Turkish lira, to “tax adjustments”, and to rises in some food
prices. An analysis on the basis of subgroups shows that
the most outstanding developments took place in last-
quarter energy prices and in alcohol & tobacco, food, and
Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments
USD million
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Exports (FOB)
113,883 134,907 152,462 151,803 157,610 143,839 142,606
Imports (CIF)
185,544 240,842 236,545 251,661 242,177 207,234 198,602
Foreign Trade Balance
-71,661 ‑105,935 -84,083 -99,859 -84,567 -63,395 -55,996
Foreign Trade Volume
299,428 375,749 389,007 403,464 399,787 351,073 341,208
Foreign Trade Volume /GDP (%)
38.8
45.2
44.7
42.5
42.9
40.8
39.8
Exports/Imports (%)
61.4
56.0
64.5
60.3
65.1
69.4
71.8
Energy Imports
38,497 54,117 60,116 55,916 54,889 37,842 27,154
Brent Oil Barrel Price (USD)
80.2
113.4
112.0
109.4
97.5
52.5
44.0
Current Account Balance
-44,616 -74,402 -47,962 -63,621 -43,597 -32,118 -32,605
Current Account Balance /GDP (%)
-5.8
-8.9
-5.5
-6.7
-4.7
-3.7
-3.8
Current Account Balance (excluding gold)
-44,163 -69,624 -53,671 -51,842 -39,701 -36,073 -34,395
Current Account Balance (excluding gold)/GDP (%)
-5.7
-8.4
-6.2
-5.5
-4.2
-4.2
-4.0
Travel Revenues
22,585 25,054 25,345 27,997 29,552 26,616 18,743
Net Direct Investment
-7,617 ‑13,812 -9,522 -9,269 -5,781 ‑12,455 -8,998
Direct Investment Inflow
9,099 16,182 13,628 12,896 12,828 17,550 12,116
CBRT Gross FX Reserves
80,721 78,458 99,923 110,928 106,902 92,922 92,051
CBRT Total Reserves
110,027 110,510 137,518 147,880 141,854 128,077 129,555
Source: TurkStat, CBRT
$143 billion
total exports
On a twelve-month basis, Turkish exports were down
by 0.9% and were worth USD 143 billion in 2016.
Developments in the World and Turkish
Economies
Annual Report 2016
The Association of Financial Institutions
38